UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.