🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”