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The Palestinian faction is likely to demand substantial changes to Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza however could ultimately agree to the outline within days as a foundation for fresh negotiations, according to analysts and sources familiar with the group.

Trump's Time Limit and Proposal Outline

The US president imposed a deadline of “three or four days” from Tuesday for Hamas to respond to his comprehensive proposal, which seeks to conclude the 24-month war in the Gaza Strip and allow an seemingly open-ended international administration of the war-torn region, or face severe repercussions.

Gaza-based analyst Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that Hamas now faces a choice between “the bad and the worst.” Abusada continued, “Should they refuse Trump's plan, as Trump has emphasized, that will not be good and will allow Israel to do whatever it takes to finish this. Hamas will likely say ‘yes, but we require this and that’.”

The Group's Key Concerns

A senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations commented that it would be extremely challenging for Hamas to accept the terms without reservations. “That is understandable. The proposal lacks details. Yet anything other than total and final acceptance will be exploited by Hamas by Israeli authorities, the Trump administration, and perhaps the European Union,” he said.

Benjamin Netanyahu has endorsed the US proposal, which incorporated many of Israel's principal demands and was formulated without consulting Hamas.

The Israeli leader, who is wanted for alleged war crimes by the international criminal court from the military campaign in Gaza, has declared that the country would “complete its mission” if Hamas refused the proposal or delayed its implementation. Earlier this year, Israeli forces unilaterally broke a two-month ceasefire, declining to move to a planned second phase that might have definitively ended the conflict.

Internal Divisions and External Influence

The group's leadership are divided among Istanbul, Doha, and Gaza, which hinders deliberations on the group's response. Turkish officials and Qatar are putting pressure on the group to compromise.

A major sticking point is the proposal's requirement that the faction surrender weapons, a insider familiar with the group said. The surrender of all weapons would be very difficult for Hamas to accept, especially without any political process or meaningful advancement toward a two-state solution.

“There are different trends inside the organization. The membership in Qatar tend to be more pragmatic, particularly compared to the military leadership in Gaza. There is an obvious necessity to have the support of the military wing, and the ordinary members,” the analyst said.

Conflict Context and Civilian Toll

The war were sparked by the Hamas raid into Israeli territory that resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people, primarily civilians. Approximately 250 were captured, of whom forty-eight are still in the territory, though fewer than half are still alive.

More than 66,000 people, largely civilians, have been killed by Israel's offensive in Gaza, large parts of the territory reduced to ruins, and most of the 2.3 million-strong population forced from their homes repeatedly.

The US Proposal Details

The US plan will mandate the militants to free the remaining captives within three days of a ceasefire coming into effect, the gradual withdrawal of IDF troops to a security perimeter along the edge, and a surge of humanitarian aid. It also requires the Israeli government to free over 1,000 detainees, a number serving life sentences, which Hamas could portray as a significant win.

Another concern for the faction is the unclear promise of Israeli withdrawals, though the explicit mention that there will be no takeover or occupation of the territory by Israeli forces was viewed positively by an insider close to the group.

The Group's Current Situation and Strength

Experts say that divisions within the organization are frequently exaggerated.

“It is unlikely there is a genuine division between the Gaza leadership, the Palestinian territories, and the outside leadership. All factions concur on rejecting the weapons surrender because the military resistance is such a deep principle in their nature and ethos,” said an expert on Hamas.

The group has suffered very significant losses in the war. Many of militants have been eliminated, along with nearly every top commanders. A report by an independent monitor found that at least forty leaders and important figures in the armed faction had been killed by air attacks since spring. Their deaths have resulted in only one top leader from the pre-war command structure remaining active, ACLED reported.

However the faction continues insurgent activities and maintains fragments of administration in the lack of any alternative. Humanitarian officials in the territory reported that the faction still had a significant influence in Gaza City, the “central camps” in the south, and the beach area of al-Mawasi.

Hamas, which was founded in the late 1980s, has enlisted many of fresh recruits who, though untrained and lacking gear, can cause harm on Israeli forces.

Milshtein said that, according to military sources, ninety percent of Hamas commanders had been killed, 97% of its rockets used or neutralized, but only forty percent of the group's vast tunnel network had been destroyed. “Hamas have adapted to the current situation. They are active in areas where the [Israeli military] has stated the group is eliminated, but you can’t totally erase them. They have metamorphosed and they persist,” Milshtein said.

Within Hamas Resistance to the Proposal

Certain inside the group are committed to rejecting the Trump plan completely.

“There is a faction from the military wing, especially the younger fighters, which aims to keep fighting,” Lovatt explained. “Their view is that Israel is struggling strategically: the mobilization of part-time soldiers is a huge burden, elections are due within a year or so, there is increasing global and local criticism … Therefore, for this faction, it’s simply a question of who will hold out the longest.”