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Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.